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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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