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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.