Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Figures

The typical number of per-day killings each month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new government data. But, public safety specialists have advised that homicide numbers could fail to indicate better countrywide stability.

Significant Drop in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in November compared with nearly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September of last year. This data was shared by the head of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we’ve had in these months is extremely important,” the President remarked, explaining that the previous month the smallest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Violent organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly military operations to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an ostensibly sharper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state said: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between various agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

However, security analysts warned that using murder statistics to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is particularly true given the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not valid for assessing the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the will to correctly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it may mask days when there were especially spiking levels of murders.

“Using the per-day average makes spikes of violence unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still plagued by extreme bloodshed, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the nation to express their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to create a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s highly problematic,” the analyst remarked.